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333 Results

Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm

We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking.

The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding

Staff Working Paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic
Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run.

Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation

Staff Working Paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault
I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors.

Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.
January 15, 2024

Mapping out the implications of climate transition risk for the financial system

We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities.

Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model

Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter
We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure.

Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data

Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system.
December 15, 2023

Lessons learned and looking ahead

Speech summary Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario
In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how lessons learned from recent economic volatility are reshaping the way the Bank of Canada conducts economic analysis and communicates with the public.
December 15, 2023

The path to price stability

Remarks Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada.
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