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322 Results

International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers

Staff Working Paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.

Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how

Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai
This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used.

Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans

Staff Working Paper 2023-54 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Francisco Gomes
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost.

A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-23 Donald Coletti
The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions.

International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.

Flagship Entry in Online Marketplaces

Staff Working Paper 2023-41 Ginger Zhe Jin, Zhentong Lu, Xiaolu Zhou, Lu Fang
In this paper, we empirically study how flagship entry in an online marketplace affects consumers, the platform, and various sellers on the platform. We find flagship entry may benefit consumers by expanding the choice set, by intensifying price competition within the entry brand, and by improving consumer perception for parts of the platform.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2023-22 Michael Irwin
This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations.

The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-5 Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev
We use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate.
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