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285 Results

Short-Run and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Commodity Discoveries

Staff Working Paper 2025-24 Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Kirill Shakhnov, Laure Simon
Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, F, F3, F4, Q, Q3, Q33

Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang
Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks.

Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

Staff Working Paper 2025-20 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Thomas Winberry, Toni Whited
We develop a heterogeneous firm macro model with private information and quantify the aggregate relevance of asymmetric information. We find that a spike in private information account for 40% of the decline in aggregate investment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and made monetary stimulus significantly less effective.

Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West
We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update

Staff Analytical Note 2025-17 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos
We provide an update on the state of the labour market, which has moved into modest excess supply. We also explore why wage growth measures remain elevated and how US trade policy could affect different parts of the labour market. We update the range of benchmarks in our dashboard of indicators.
June 5, 2025

Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy

Speech summary Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario
Speaking a day after we decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how we make better decisions by looking at a variety of data and talking with Canadians.
June 5, 2025

Talking to Canadians: How real-world insights shape monetary policy

Remarks Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario
Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how the Bank of Canada is using non-traditional data to better inform its monetary policy decisions.

Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant
This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37
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