Stéphane Surprenant

Staff research

How Do Interest Rates Spur the Housing Market: Exploring Nonlinear Effects

Staff analytical paper 2026-35 Benjamin Straus, Stéphane Surprenant, Kerem Tuzcuoglu
In this note we examine how monetary policy affects housing demand, supply and prices in Canada, and whether these effects vary with labour market conditions
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts

Staff working paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant
We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting

Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant
This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting

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