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42 Results

Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline

Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu
We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.

Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation

Staff Working Paper 2021-28 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn, Marcel Voia
The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, R, R2, R22

Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness

Staff Analytical Note 2021-4 Mikael Khan, Olga Bilyk, Matthew Ackman
Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified.

Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market

Staff Working Paper 2021-18 Zhentong Lu, Sisi Zhang, Jian Hong
How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): O, O1, O18, R, R3, R31, R38

The Bank of Canada COVID‑19 stringency index: measuring policy response across provinces

We construct an index that systematically measures and tracks the stringency of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across Canadian provinces. Researchers can use this stringency index to analyze how the pandemic is affecting the economy.

Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19

Staff Analytical Note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée
COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults.
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