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Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis

Staff Working Paper 1998-3 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier
The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6

Constraints on the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Dealing with Uncertainty in Financial Markets

Technical Report No. 80 Kevin Clinton, Mark Zelmer
Canada's economic performance in the first half of the 1990s was adversely affected by high premiums in interest rates that were brought on by political and economic uncertainties.

Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach

Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus
Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22

A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States

Staff Working Paper 1997-20 Iris Claus
A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy.

Les marchés du travail régionaux : une comparaison entre le Canada et les États-Unis

Staff Working Paper 1997-17 Mario Lefebvre
The purpose of this study is to compare the behaviour of regional labour markets in Canada and the United States. The study shows that the degree of persistence of unemployment is significantly higher in the provinces of Canada than it is in the various American regions.

Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets

Staff Working Paper 1997-18 David Watt
This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43

The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization

Staff Working Paper 1997-15 Jonathan Millar
Budget rules can be defined as legislated or constitutional constraints on government deficits, taxes, expenditures, or debt. This paper reviews the budget rules recently legislated in six of Canada's provinces and both of its territories, as well as budget rules in other OECD countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H3, H6, H61

Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada

Staff Working Paper 1997-14 Robert Amano, Tiff Macklem
The menu-cost models of price adjustment developed by Ball and Mankiw (1994;1995) predict that short-run movements in inflation should be positively related to the skewness and the variance of the distribution of disaggregated relative-price shocks in each period. We test these predictions on Canadian data using the distribution of changes in disaggregated producer prices to measure the skewness and standard deviation of relative-price shocks.
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