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320 Results

Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-1 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Daniel de Munnik, Laura Murphy
This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, N, N7, N71, N72

Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth

Staff Working Paper 2018-1 Michele Cavallo, Anthony Landry
Capital-goods imports have become an increasing source of growth for the U.S. economy. To understand this phenomenon, we build a neoclassical growth model with international trade in capital goods in which agents face exogenous paths of total factor and investment-specific productivity measures.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E2, F, F2, F4, O, O3, O4

A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities

Staff Analytical Note 2017-24 Thibaut Duprey, Tom Roberts
This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.

The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements

Staff Analytical Note 2017-22 Bruno Feunou, Corey Garriott, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman
In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time.

Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam
Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products.

The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees

Staff Working Paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress
Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports.
November 16, 2017

An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12 Rose Cunningham, Min Jae Kim, Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess
In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries.

Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers

Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, F, F0
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