Retail Payment Innovations and Cash Usage: Accounting for Attrition Using Refreshment Samples Staff Working Paper 2014-27 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh We exploit the panel dimension of the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) data to estimate the impact of retail payment innovations on cash usage. We estimate a semiparametric panel data model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and allows for general forms of non-random attrition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E4, E41
Filling in the Blanks: Network Structure and Interbank Contagion Staff Working Paper 2014-26 Kartik Anand, Ben Craig, Goetz von Peter The network pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet bilateral linkages are often unobserved, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating counterparty exposures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D8, D85, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14
Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems Staff Working Paper 2014-25 Mark Rempel Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C53, E, E4, E42, E44, G, G1, G10
Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing: Using the Least Squares Criterion for Quantile Estimation Staff Working Paper 2014-24 Heng Chen Estimation of the quantile model, especially with a large data set, can be computationally burdensome. This paper proposes using the Gaussian approximation, also known as quantile coupling, to estimate a quantile model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C14, C2, C21
June 12, 2014 Stress Testing the Canadian Banking System: A System-Wide Approach Financial System Review - June 2014 Kartik Anand, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Virginie Traclet Stress testing is an important tool used by financial authorities and entities around the world to evaluate potential risks to the financial system. Kartik Anand, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé and Virginie Traclet discuss different stress-testing approaches, with emphasis on the innovative and analytically rigorous model developed by the Bank of Canada: the MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF). They also present the stress-test results obtained in the context of the 2013 Canada Financial Sector Assessment Program led by the International Monetary Fund, including the important contributions made by the use of MFRAF in the exercise. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
May 13, 2014 The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Christiane Baumeister Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-18 Giovanni Giusti, Janet Hua Jiang, Yiping Xu We study the formation of price bubbles on experimental asset markets where cash earns interest. There are two main conclusions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C90, G, G1, G10
Multiple Fixed Effects in Binary Response Panel Data Models Staff Working Paper 2014-17 Karyne B. Charbonneau This paper considers the adaptability of estimation methods for binary response panel data models to multiple fixed effects. It is motivated by the gravity equation used in international trade, where important papers such as Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) use binary response models with fixed effects for both importing and exporting countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, F, F1, F14
Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs Staff Working Paper 2014-12 Jasmina Arifovic, Janet Hua Jiang A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D80, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20