Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
New Housing Registrations as a Leading Indicator of the BC Economy Staff Discussion Paper 2016-3 Calista Cheung, Dmitry Granovsky Housing starts and building permits data are commonly used as leading indicators of economic activity. In British Columbia, all new homes must be registered with the Homeowner Protection Office, a branch of BC Housing, before the issuance of building permits and the start of construction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Housing, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37
Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption Staff Working Paper 2015-47 Bruno Albuquerque, Georgi Krustev Using a novel dataset for the US states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of US consumption since 2007, in the aftermath of the housing bubble. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C2, C23, C5, C52, D, D1, D12, H, H3, H31
Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, G, G1
Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time Staff Working Paper 2015-38 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Justin-Damien Guénette, Garima Vasishtha Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, C5, C53, E, E3, E37
Heterogeneity in the Dynamic Effects of Uncertainty on Investment Staff Working Paper 2015-34 Sungje Byun, Soojin Jo How does aggregate profit uncertainty influence investment activity at the firm level? We propose a parsimonious adaptation of a factor-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to exploit information in a subindustry sales panel for an efficient and tractable estimation of aggregate volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, D, D8, D80, E, E2, E22
Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach Staff Working Paper 2015-32 Kartik Anand, Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37