March 17, 2025 Will asset managers dash for cash? A summary of the implications for central banks David Cimon, Jean-Philippe Dion, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu We consider ways central banks could adapt in the event of an increased risk of a dash for cash from asset managers. We explore ideas such as new facilities that ease asset managers’ ability to convert existing assets to cash or new assets with liquidity that central banks would guarantee. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2
Will Asset Managers Dash for Cash? Implications for Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2025-5 David Cimon, Jean-Philippe Dion, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu We consider ways central banks could adapt in the event of an increased risk of a dash for cash from asset managers. We explore ideas such as new facilities that ease asset managers’ ability to convert existing assets to cash or new assets with liquidity that central banks would guarantee. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2
The Contingent Term Repo Facility: Lessons learned and an update Staff Analytical Note 2025-12 Jessie Ziqing Chen, Parnell Chu, Scott Kinnear In 2024, the Bank of Canada reviewed and updated its Contingent Term Repo Facility policy, incorporating lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and other global market developments, such as the UK gilt crisis in September 2022. This paper accompanies the March 17, 2025, Contingent Term Repo Facility market notice and provides background information and further details about the design of the revised policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F6, F68, G, G0, G01, G2, G23
Canadian Bitcoin Ownership in 2023: Key Takeaways Staff Discussion Paper 2025-4 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Doina Rusu The Bitcoin Omnibus Survey is an important tool for monitoring Canadians’ awareness and ownership of bitcoin and other cryptoassets over time. In this paper, we present data highlights from the 2023 survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Natural disasters and inflation in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54
Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Climate change, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): B, B2, B23, C, C1, C13, C2, C23, E, E1, E17, E3, E37, E6, E62, H, H6
Breaking Down the US Employment Multiplier Using Micro-Level Data Staff Working Paper 2025-8 Edoardo Briganti, Holt Dwyer, Ricardo Duque Gabriel, Victor Sellemi We construct a new dataset of unanticipated contracts and examine their effects on employment growth. We find positive, significant and persistent effects on firms with fewer than 150 employees and estimate a cost-perjob that is an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62
Markups, Pass-Through, and Firm Heterogeneity with Sequentially Mixed Search Staff Working Paper 2025-7 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham Market power and pass-through of cost and demand shocks are studied in a market with free entry of heterogeneous firms and consumer mixed search. Equilibrium prices and markups are driven by variation in the elasticity of demand across firms. Improved conditions for buyers can either raise or lower market power. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks Staff Analytical Note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32