Revisiting the Monetary Sovereignty Rationale for CBDCs Staff discussion paper 2021-17 Skylar Brooks One argument for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is that without them, private and foreign digital monies could displace domestic currencies, threatening the central bank’s monetary policy and lender of last resort capabilities. I revisit this monetary sovereignty rationale and offer a wider view—one that considers a broader set of currency functions and captures important cross-country variation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, H, H1, H12, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates? Staff working paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada Staff working paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff working paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory Staff working paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E6, E63, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns Staff discussion paper 2021-16 Karim McDaniels, Nico Palesch, Sanjam Suri, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving? Staff working paper 2021-56 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market Staff working paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
More Money for Some: The Redistributive Effects of Open Market Operations Staff working paper 2021-46 Christian Bustamante I use a search-theoretic model of money to study how open market operations affect the conduct of monetary policy and what this means for households along the wealth distribution. In the model, households vary in the size and composition of their portfolios, which in turn implies that they may be unevenly affected by open market operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff working paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission