Good Volatility, Bad Volatility and Option Pricing Staff Working Paper 2017-52 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction Staff Working Paper 2017-51 Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Naoki Wakamori Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C3, C36, D, D2, D22, L, L4, L41
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? Staff Working Paper 2017-50 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect of oil price shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q4, Q43
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52
Cash Versus Card: Payment Discontinuities and the Burden of Holding Coins Staff Working Paper 2017-47 Heng Chen, Kim Huynh, Oz Shy Cash is the preferred method of payment for small value transactions generally less than $25. We provide insight to this finding with a new theoretical model that characterizes and compares consumers’ costs of paying with cash to paying with cards for each transaction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, E, E4, E42
On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market Staff Working Paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C58, D, D8, D84, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43
November 7, 2017 Understanding Inflation: Getting Back to Basics Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Montréal and Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how recent weak inflation in Canada and other economies can be explained by fundamental factors. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions Staff Working Paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, D, D1, D11, D12, D13, I, I3, I32
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design Staff Working Paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22