The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable Staff working paper 2019-13 Dany Brouillette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Pierre St-Amant, Bassirou Gueye, Elise Nelson In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E2, E24, E27 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility Staff working paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies Staff analytical note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada Staff discussion paper 2018-18 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes, Lawrence L. Schembri In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Staff working paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts Staff working paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Introducing a Systematic Measure of Idiosyncratic Prices Staff analytical note 2018-33 Madigan Dockrill, Laurence Savoie-Chabot There is a risk that Bank of Canada staff may inadvertently be biased when analyzing inflation: when inflation surprises on the downside, staff might emphasize negative idiosyncratic factors. When inflation surprises on the upside, staff might emphasize the positive idiosyncratic factors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Price Selection Staff working paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2018-40 Shutao Cao, Césaire Meh, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Yaz Terajima We document that, across households, the money consumption ratio increases with age and decreases with consumption, and that there has been a large increase in the money consumption ratio during the recent era of very low interest rates. We construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model of money holdings for transaction purposes subject to age (older households use more money), cohort (younger generations are exposed to better transaction technology), and time effects (nominal interest rates affect money holdings). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Sluggish Forecasts Staff working paper 2018-39 Monica Jain Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting