A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation Staff Working Paper 2020-50 Antonio Diez de los Rios We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, H, H0, I, I1
November 23, 2020 Taking the pulse of Canada’s financial system Speech summary Toni Gravelle Autorité des marchés financiers Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses how the Bank of Canada is carefully monitoring our financial system as the economy recovers from the COVID‑19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments
November 23, 2020 Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic Geneviève Vallée Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions have allowed borrowers to defer payments on a range of loans. In a series of charts, we investigate what payment deferrals tell us about the financial health of borrowers and the related risks to financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates
November 23, 2020 Financial stability and the COVID-19 pandemic Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Autorité des marchés financiers Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an assessment of risks to the stability of the Canadian financial system, including risks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments
Concentration in the market of authorized participants of US fixed-income exchange-traded funds Staff Analytical Note 2020-27 Rohan Arora, Sébastien Betermier, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Adriano Palumbo, Ryan Shotlander We show that a small number of authorized participants (APs) actively create and redeem shares of US-listed fixed-income exchange-traded funds (FI-ETFs). In 2019, three APs performed 82 percent of gross creations and redemptions of FI-ETF shares. In contrast, the group of active APs for equity ETFs was much more diverse. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23
November 12, 2020 Helping the economy after the COVID‑19 pandemic Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario The pandemic won’t last forever. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery? Staff Analytical Note 2020-22 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
October 8, 2020 COVID‑19 and the financial system Speech summary Tiff Macklem Global Risk Institute Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses financial risks from the COVID-19 pandemic that are affecting our economy and that could shape how well it recovers. He also talks about financial risks from climate change. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Financial stability, Monetary policy
October 8, 2020 From COVID to climate—the importance of risk management Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem The Global Risk Institute Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the importance of financial risk management as Canada recovers from the pandemic, and as it deals with issues like climate change. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Financial stability, Monetary policy