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413 Results

Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service

Staff working paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann
We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security.

Expropriation Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Does Return of Capital Dominate Return on Capital?

Staff working paper 2017-9 M. Akhtaruzzaman, Nathan Berg, Christopher Hajzler
Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization.

The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?

Staff working paper 2018-59 Xiaodan Gao, Shaofeng Xu
We document countercyclical corporate saving behavior with the degree of countercyclicality varying nonmonotonically with firm size. We then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to explain the pattern and study its implications for business cycles.

How Long Does It Take You to Pay? A Duration Study of Canadian Retail Transaction Payment Times

Staff working paper 2018-46 Geneviève Vallée
Using an exclusive data set of payment times for retail transactions made in Canada, I show that cash is the most time-efficient method of payment (MOP) when compared with payments by debit and credit cards. I model payment efficiency using Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for consumer choice of MOP.

On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access

Staff working paper 2025-19 Fabienne Schneider
The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities.

A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science

Staff working paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir
In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

Portfolio Rebalancing Channel and the Effects of Large-Scale Stock and Bond Purchases

Staff working paper 2025-38 Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca
We quantify the effects of large-scale stock purchases by a central bank and compare these to bond purchases. We find that the central bank’s equity purchases would lower the risk and term premiums on stocks and long-term bonds, respectively, and thereby stimulate economic activity.

Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries

Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship.

United in Booms, Divided in Busts: Regional House Price Cycles and Monetary Policy

Staff working paper 2025-36 Ulrich Roschitsch, Hannes Twieling
This paper shows that regional disparities in house price growth are more pronounced during house price busts than during booms. To explain this observation we construct a two-region currency union model incorporating a housing sector and extrapolative belief updating regarding house prices. To solve the model, we propose a new method that efficiently handles extrapolative belief updating in a wide class of structural models.
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