November 9, 1994 The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Stephen S. Poloz, David Rose, Robert Tetlow This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Economic models
Real Exchange Rate Decompositions Staff Discussion Paper 2022-6 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn We break down the exchange rate based on an explicit link between fixed income and currency markets. We isolate a foreign exchange risk premium and show it is the main driver of the exchange rate between the Canadian and US dollars, especially on monetary policy and macroeconomic news announcement days. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
May 20, 2021 Financial System Review—2021 A stable and efficient financial system is essential for sustaining economic growth and raising living standards. In our Financial System Review, we identify the main vulnerabilities and risks in the financial system in Canada and explain how they have evolved over the past year. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
January 19, 2011 Monetary Policy Report – January 2011 This is a report of the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada: Mark Carney, Tiff Macklem, John Murray, Timothy Lane, Jean Boivin and Agathe Côté. It presents the Bank’s outlook based on data received up to 14 January 2011. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
December 10, 1996 The maturity structure of household financial assets and liabilities Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Marie-Claude Montplaisir In this article, the author examines the maturity structure of the household sector's balance sheet and the degree of interest rate variability of household loans and financial assets. The bulk of households' interest-bearing assets and financial liabilities consists of medium- and long-term, fixed-rate instruments. The pattern of personal consumption is therefore influenced more by the wealth effects of interest rate changes than by their income effects, and the full impact of a permnent shift in interest rates on consumption will become apparent only after a lag. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet
March 26, 2018 Annual Report 2017 The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2017. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Stephen S. Poloz. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers Technical Report No. 109 Heng Chen, Rallye Shen Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83
Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33
August 27, 2013 Exits, Spillovers and Monetary Policy Independence Remarks John Murray Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario Deputy Governor John Murray discusses exits from unconventional monetary policies, spillovers and monetary policy independence. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 24, 2014 Are We There Yet? The United States and Canada After the Global Financial Crisis Remarks Timothy Lane Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses how the economic ties between Canada and the United States are evolving as the recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis continues. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks