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The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces.

This paper provides a novel methodology for estimating option pricing models based on risk-neutral moments. We synthesize the distribution extracted from a panel of option prices and exploit linear relationships between risk-neutral cumulants and latent factors within the continuous time affine stochastic volatility framework.

Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth.

Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay.

The Bank of Canada is keenly interested in productivity - for a number of reasons. Productivity gains are a key determinant of growth in potential output and, hence, of Canada's sustainable pace of non-inflationary economic expansion.

In a recent paper Mercenier and Sekkat (1988) conclude that the Bank of Canada has followed a policy of exchange rate targeting using the money supply. We re-examine their results using a different estimation approach and with different assumptions about the forcing process of the exogenous variables.

Meet the academic consultants and researchers from outside the Bank who are working with us.

The European Union, which currently consists of 15 states, occupies an important place among the advanced economies. The final stage of the European economic and monetary union (EMU) is scheduled to begin in January 1999 with the adoption of a common currency called the "euro." A decision on which countries will participate in the euro area in 1999 will be made next spring based in part on the achievement of the economic criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty. In this article, the authors, after a brief discussion of the historical background, cast some light on the institutional aspects of the EMU, on the formulation and implementation of economic policy, as well as on the internal and external effects of EMU completion. For Canada, the direct implications of the shift to the euro appear to be relatively modest, at least in the short run.

At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 countries announced their commitment to clear all standardized over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs). Since then, CCPs have become increasingly important and there has been an extensive program of regulatory enhancements to both them and OTC derivatives markets.

The degree to which financial constraint is binding is often not directly observable in commonly used business data sets (e.g., Compustat). In this paper, we measure and estimate the likelihood of a firm being constrained by external financing using a data set of small- and medium-sized Canadian firms.