What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account Staff discussion paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
May 20, 1997 Monetary Policy Report – May 1997 Since the last Report, the Canadian economy has advanced broadly in line with expectations. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 11, 2000 Monetary Policy Report – May 2000 The global economy has shown greater strength than was anticipated at the time of the November Report. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 20, 1996 Monetary Policy Report – May 1996 This Report presents the Bank of Canada’s assessment of the trend of inflation in Canada and explains the monetary policy actions deemed necessary to keep inflation within the Bank’s inflation-control target range. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields Staff working paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments Staff working paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade Staff working paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F15, L, L1, L15 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff working paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market Staff working paper 2018-49 Lin Shao This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, O, O1, O17, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Cyber Risk and Security Investment Staff working paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech