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Promissory Note, 1712

The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa

This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks.

We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.

In a virtual address to the Canadian Association for Business Economics, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the difference between how Canadians perceive inflation and the actual measured rate. He explains why that gap may exist and what it could mean for monetary policy and the economy.

This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities, which took place in October 2012, as well as two articles that present analysis of international macroeconomic coordination since the global financial crisis and the U.S. recovery from the Great Recession.

We both share borders with the United States, the most important export market for each of us. Both Canada and Mexico have recently faced setbacks in cross-border trade with the United States. These stem not only from weaker U.S. domestic demand, but also from specific trade problems and from border-crossing delays associated with tighter security.

One argument for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is that without them, private and foreign digital monies could displace domestic currencies, threatening the central bank’s monetary policy and lender of last resort capabilities. I revisit this monetary sovereignty rationale and offer a wider view—one that considers a broader set of currency functions and captures important cross-country variation.

The hedge fund industry has been growing so quickly that meetings like this one are welcome—they provide a chance to step back and look at context and trends. And that's what I propose to do this morning. Specifically, I'd like to speak about volatility in both the real economy and in financial markets and discuss how it has been affected by monetary policy and financial innovation.

Although there has been some improvement in conditions over the past several weeks, strains in global credit markets have broadened since December.

FSR Highlights - June 2008

Errata: Some factual errors in the June report "Bank of Canada Oversight Activities during 2007 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act" have been corrected. They concern (i) clarification of the U.S. Federal Reserve as lead overseer of CLS Bank and (ii) the steps taken by CDS on 14 August 2007 to assist issuers and participants holding defaulted ABCP.

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.