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A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […]

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.

We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond.

We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making.

We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns.

Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run.

The authors provide an extensive review of the rapidly expanding research on productivity, both at the macro and micro levels. They focus primarily on papers written about Canada, but also draw on selected studies from other countries, especially the United States, where such work sheds important light on particular aspects of productivity growth. The authors […]

We simulate introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and consider consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and usage at the point of sale. Modest adoption frictions significantly inhibit CBDC market penetration along all three dimensions. Incumbent responses to restore pre-CBDC market shares are moderate to small and further reduce the impact of a CBDC.

This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services.

The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy.