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1857 Results

Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey

Staff Analytical Note 2023-1 Annick Demers, Tamara Gomes, Stephane Gignac
The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results.

Climate Variability and International Trade

Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin
This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54

Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock

Staff Working Paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt
Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly.

Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)

Technical Report No. 123 Kerem Tuzcuoglu
The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios.

(Un)Conventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-6 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie
We build a tractable New Keynesian model to study and compare four types of monetary and fiscal policy: policy rate adjustments, quantitative easing, lump-sum fiscal transfers and government spending. We find that tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy, and optimal policy coordination needs at least two of these four policy instruments.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E6, E61, E62, E63

Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective

Staff Working Paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh
Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.

Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context

This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58

Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data

Staff Working Paper 2023-4 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba
Does consumption smoothing fundamentally decrease during macroeconomic disasters? This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870–2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times.
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