Tracking Heterogeneous Spending Patterns with Credit Card Microdata Staff analytical paper 2026-38 Jia Qi Xiao, Jackson Reid, Joey Daniels We present a measure of account-level credit card spending constructed using credit bureau microdata, capturing monthly spending for approximately 80% of adults in Canada. Our measure offers higher frequency than other publicly available consumption metrics, and can be disaggregated by age, geographic location and credit history. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2025 global monitoring report Staff analytical paper 2026-37 Thomas Thorn, Sylvia Xie We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2024. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Climate stress test of the global supply chain network: the case of river floods Staff working paper 2026-30 Georgios Papadopoulos, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Roberto Panzica This study investigates how extreme flood events can indirectly impact the global supply chain through production disruptions. The findings emphasize that the size of inventories is crucial; a lean-inventory system leads to faster shock propagation, higher losses, and fewer recoveries compared to an abundant-inventory system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C60, C63, D, D8, D85, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness
September 1, 2026 Quarterly Research Update – 2026 Q2 This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Canadian businesses’ use of AI: What the evidence shows Sparks at Bank article Chanya Chawla, Crystal Arnburg As businesses worldwide are adopting artificial intelligence to boost productivity, little has been known about how businesses in Canada are using it. Survey results from the Bank of Canada show that AI adoption remains at an early stage for many Canadian businesses. As well, businesses expect AI to affect capital spending and employment, but only gradually. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Time Use and Consumption Expenditures Staff working paper 2026-29 Daniela Hauser, Stefano Gnocchi, Laure Simon This paper shows that consumption activities toward which households reallocate more time in recessions see larger expenditure declines, revealing a systematic link between time-use and expenditure cyclicality. A two-sector New Keynesian model shows this time-expenditure substitution explains roughly forty percent of consumption's response to monetary policy shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J22 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
2025 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash in an Increasingly Digital and Mobile Economy Staff analytical paper 2026-36 Marie-Hélène Felt, Saika Pacouloute, Angelika Welte The 2025 Methods-of-Payment Survey provides insights into how Canadians pay for their day-to-day purchases and how they use cash (i.e. banknotes and coins). While contactless card payments dominate in-person transactions, most Canadians maintain favourable views on cash and still hold and use it. They are also increasingly adopting mobile payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
How Do Interest Rates Spur the Housing Market: Exploring Nonlinear Effects Staff analytical paper 2026-35 Benjamin Straus, Stéphane Surprenant, Kerem Tuzcuoglu In this note we examine how monetary policy affects housing demand, supply and prices in Canada, and whether these effects vary with labour market conditions Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Early signs of AI-driven adjustments in Canada’s labour market Sparks at Bank article Dany Brouillette, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Gabriela Galassi AI has the potential to reshape the labour market by automating some tasks for many workers. Even though evidence of a significant impact on the labour market remains limited, AI appears to be making it harder for some Canadians to find work in occupations that are most exposed to it. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Private credit in Canada Sparks at Bank article Wendy Chan, Cameron MacDonald, Geneviève Vallée Private credit—business loans made by non-bank lenders—has expanded rapidly worldwide, but for Canadian businesses, it remains a stable and relatively limited source of funding. Canadian asset managers, however, are actively participating in private credit globally, creating exposures that could matter for financial stability in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit