International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Outlook for Electric Vehicles and Implications for the Oil Market

  Staff analytical note 2019-19 Étienne Latulippe, Kun Mo

  The market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly. Subsidies and technological improvements are expected to increase the market share of EVs over the coming decade. In its base-case scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects EV use to rise from 4 million vehicles in 2018 to 120 million by 2030, or from 0.3 per cent to over 7 per cent of the global car fleet.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

  Staff working paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura

  This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports

  Staff working paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress

  This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

  Staff analytical note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk

  This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper

  Staff discussion paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky

  Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?

  Staff analytical note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack

  We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• The Trade War in Numbers

  Staff working paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies

  Staff discussion paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam

  This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows

  Staff discussion paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo

  The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

• Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs

  Staff working paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress

  This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness