Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
216
result(s)
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Inflation and Unemployment: New Evidence Using Micro‐Level Data
Staff Analytical Note 2017-6
Dany Brouillette,
Natalia Kyui
Recent evidence suggests that the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the Canadian labour market has risen following the 2008–09 recession (see Brouillette, Kostyshyna and Kyui 2016).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
J,
J3,
J30
April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2017-5
Andrew Agopsowicz,
Bassirou Gueye,
Natalia Kyui,
Youngmin Park,
Mohanad Salameh,
Ben Tomlin
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E00,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
E3,
E37,
E6
A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions
Staff Analytical Note 2017-4
Dany Brouillette,
Katerina Gribbin,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
James Ketcheson,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Jonathan Lachaine,
Colin Scarffe
In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J22,
J23
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth
Staff Analytical Note 2017-3
Patrick Alexander,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Patrick Kirby,
Louis Poirier,
Sri Thanabalasingam,
Kristina Hess
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads
Staff Analytical Note 2017-2
Maxime Leboeuf,
James Pinnington
The spread between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a similar Government of Canada bond reflects compensation for possible default by the issuing firm and compensation for additional risks beyond default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II
Staff Analytical Note 2017-1
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Guillaume Nolin
This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31
Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps
Staff Analytical Note 2016-16
Robert Amano,
Thomas J. Carter,
Rhys R. Mendes
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E5
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I
Staff Analytical Note 2016-15
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Guillaume Nolin
In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics
Staff Analytical Note 2016-14
Robert Amano,
Thomas J. Carter,
Rhys R. Mendes
Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E5