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2333
result(s)
Archetypes for a retail CBDC
Staff Analytical Note 2022-14
Sriram Darbha
A variety of technology designs could support retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems. We develop five archetypes of CBDC systems, outline their characteristics and discuss their trade-offs. This work serves as a framework to analyze and compare different designs, independent of vendor, platform and implementation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E51,
O,
O3
Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model
Technical Report No. 122
Gabriel Bruneau,
Thibaut Duprey,
Ruben Hipp
We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C52,
C53,
G,
G1,
G17,
G2,
G21,
G28
Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance
Staff Analytical Note 2022-13
Vivian Chu,
Yang Zhang
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E5,
E52,
E58
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models
Staff Working Paper 2022-42
Cars Hommes,
Kostas Mavromatis,
Tolga Özden,
Mei Zhu
We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
D,
D8,
D83,
D84,
E,
E3,
E6,
E62
How does the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet impact the banking system?
Staff Analytical Note 2022-12
Daniel Bolduc-Zuluaga,
Brad Howell,
Grahame Johnson
We examine how changes in the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet impact the banking system. Quantitative easing contributed to an increase in the size of the banking system’s balance sheet and an improvement in bank liquidity coverage ratios. Quantitative tightening is expected to partially reverse these impacts. The banking system will have to adjust its liquidity management strategy in response.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E51,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23,
G3,
G32
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
Staff Working Paper 2022-41
Paul Beaudry,
Thomas J. Carter,
Amartya Lahiri
When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E65
Calculating Effective Degrees of Freedom for Forecast Combinations and Ensemble Models
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-19
James Younker
This paper derives a calculation for the effective degrees of freedom of a forecast combination under a set of general conditions for linear models. Computing effective degrees of freedom shows that the complexity cost of a forecast combination is driven by the parameters in the weighting scheme and the weighted average of parameters in the auxiliary models.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C01,
C02,
C1,
C13,
C5,
C50,
C51,
C52,
C53
Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons
Staff Working Paper 2022-40
Michael Boutros
How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Economic models,
Fiscal policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D9,
D91,
E,
E2,
E21,
G,
G5,
G51
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Staff Working Paper 2022-39
Denis Gorea,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Marianna Kudlyak
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
R,
R2,
R21,
R3,
R31