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1810
result(s)
Digitalization: Definition and Measurement
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-20
Guyllaume Faucher,
Stephanie Houle
This paper provides an overview of digitalization and its economic implications. We assess the scope of digitalization in Canada as well as the challenges related to its measurement.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Digitalization,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E01,
O,
O3,
O33,
O5,
O51
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-19
Chinara Azizova,
Bruno Feunou,
James Kyeong
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C58,
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G1,
G17
The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions
Staff Working Paper 2023-48
Soyoung Lee
A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Debt management,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E32,
E6
Labour Supply and Firm Size
Staff Working Paper 2023-47
Lin Shao,
Faisal Sohail,
Emircan Yurdagul
This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J3,
J31
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects
Staff Working Paper 2023-46
Fabio Ghironi,
Daisoon Kim,
Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Exchange rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41,
F42,
F5,
F51
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis
Staff Working Paper 2023-45
Tony Chernis
I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C5,
C52,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight
Staff Working Paper 2023-44
Seunghoon Na,
Yinxi Xie
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Exchange rates,
International topics,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E7,
E70,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41
Competition for Exclusivity and Customer Lock-in: Evidence from Copyright Enforcement in China
Staff Working Paper 2023-43
Youming Liu
This paper studies the music streaming industry and argues that having exclusive rights granted by copyright law drives firms to offer exclusive content to lock in customers. I employ theoretical and descriptive empirical analysis, along with a dynamic structural model, to support the argument and explore policies for improving competition.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Firm dynamics,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
L,
L1,
L13,
L4,
L42,
L5,
L51
Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model
Staff Working Paper 2023-42
Jonathan Chiu,
Thorsten Koeppl,
Hanna Yu,
Shengxing Zhang
We develop a production-network model to capture how decentralized finance (DeFi) has evolved across different sectors of financial services. The model allows us to measure the value added by different DeFi sectors and to study how the connections across the sectors influence token prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2