F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

• Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam

  US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14

• Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

  Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia

  Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31

• Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

  Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston

  We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Market structure and pricing, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, Q, Q1, Q17

• No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress

  Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F15, L, L1, L15

• The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau

  This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

  Staff Working Paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura

  This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41

• The Trade War in Numbers

  Staff Working Paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913

  Staff Working Paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander

  In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71

• Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-1 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Daniel de Munnik, Laura Murphy

  This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, N, N7, N71, N72