D - Microeconomics

• Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share

  Staff Working Paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short

  Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62

• What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin

  We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31

• A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Market Operations Related to COVID-19

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-6 Grahame Johnson

  This paper reviews the range of extraordinary programs launched by the Bank of Canada in response to the pandemic-related financial market disruption. It provides some recommendations for future interventions to ensure the programs are appropriately structured for the financial and economic stresses they are intended to address.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G21, G23, H, H1, H12

• We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

  Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée

  We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

• Firms’ inflation expectations and price-setting behaviour in Canada: Evidence from a business survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-3 Ramisha Asghar, James Fudurich, Jane Voll

  Canadian firms’ expectations for high inflation may be influencing their price setting, supporting strong price growth and delays in the transmission of monetary policy. Using data from the Business Outlook Survey, we investigate the reasons behind widespread price growth seen in Canada in 2021 and early 2022.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31

• The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

  Staff Working Paper 2023-12 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde, Shaoteng Li, Anna Trubnikova

  This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2

• Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

  Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang

  We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40

• Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2023-9 Laure Simon

  Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D15, E, E2, E21, E6, E62, J, J1, J11, J2, J24

• Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-2 Monica Jain, Walter Muiruri, Jonathan Witmer, Sharon Kozicki, Jeremy Harrison

  This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58

• Geographical and Cultural Proximity in Retail Banking

  Staff Working Paper 2023-2 Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Hongyu Xiao

  This paper measures how both geographical and cultural proximity of bank branches affect household credit choice and pricing. For credit products that require high levels of ex-ante screening, we find that both proximities can complement each other in reducing the cost of providing soft information, thereby increasing credit access.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, G, G2, G20, G21, R, R2, R22, Z, Z1, Z10, Z13