C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

• An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5

• Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2023-13 Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Isabelle Salle

  This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement a chaotic overlapping-generation model in the lab and find that group coordination is always on the steady state or on the two-cycle and that behavior is non-monotonic.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C68, C9, C91, C92, E, E1, E13, E7, E70, G, G1, G12, G4, G41

• Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System

  Staff Working Paper 2023-1 Nellie Zhang

  This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E4, E42, E5, E58

• Improving the Efficiency of Payments Systems Using Quantum Computing

  Staff Working Paper 2022-53 Christopher McMahon, Donald McGillivray, Ajit Desai, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Jean-Paul Lam, Thomas Lo, Danica Marsden, Vladimir Skavysh

  We develop an algorithm and run it on a hybrid quantum annealing solver to find an ordering of payments that reduces the amount of system liquidity necessary without substantially increasing payment delays.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58

• Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models

  Staff Working Paper 2022-31 Xiangjin Shen, Iskander Karibzhanov, Hiroki Tsurumi, Shiliang Li

  We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1

• Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning

  Staff Working Paper 2022-29 Vladimir Skavysh, Sofia Priazhkina, Diego Guala, Thomas Bromley

  Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C6, C61, C63, C68, C7, E, E1, E13, G, G1, G17, G2, G21

• Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov

  Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54

• Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2021-35 Grzegorz Halaj, Sofia Priazhkina

  Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C72, G, G2, G21

• Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-5 Jonathan Swarbrick

  Solving macroeconomic models is difficult. One challenge is the occasionally binding constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This paper reviews various ways to solve models that include this feature.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6

• A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models

  Staff Working Paper 2021-11 Youngsoo Jang, Soyoung Lee

  Models with default options are hard to solve. We propose an extension of the endogenous grid method that solves default risk models more efficiently and accurately.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E3, E37