Staff working papers

• A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models

  Staff Working Paper 2021-11 Youngsoo Jang, Soyoung Lee

  Models with default options are hard to solve. We propose an extension of the endogenous grid method that solves default risk models more efficiently and accurately.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E3, E37

• Monetary Policy Pass-Through with Central Bank Digital Currency

  Staff Working Paper 2021-10 Janet Hua Jiang, Yu Zhu

  Many central banks are considering issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This would introduce a new policy tool—interest on CBDC. We investigate how this new tool would interact with traditional monetary policy tools, such as the interest on central bank reserves.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E52

• Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers

  Staff Working Paper 2021-9 João Granja, Nuno Paixão

  We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G20, G21, G28, G3, G34, L, L1, L11

• Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in Canada and the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2021-8 Marie-Hélène Felt, Fumiko Hayashi, Joanna Stavins, Angelika Welte

  Although credit cards are more expensive for merchants to accept than cash or debit cards, merchants typically pass through their costs evenly to all customers. Along with consumer card rewards and banking fees, this creates cross-subsidies between payment methods. Because higher-income individuals tend to use credit cards more than those with lower incomes, our results indicate that these cross-subsidies might lead to regressive distributional effects.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D2, D23, D3, D31, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, L, L8, L81

• Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

  Staff Working Paper 2021-7 Pablo S. Castro, Ajit Desai, Han Du, Rodney J. Garratt, Francisco Rivadeneyra

  We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58

• Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2021-6 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong

  Digital currencies store balances in anonymous electronic addresses. This paper analyzes the trade-offs between the safety and convenience of aggregating balances in addresses, electronic wallets and banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58

• (Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2021-5 Boris Chafwehé, Rigas Oikonomou, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel

  How should policy be designed at high debt levels, when fiscal authorities have little room to adjust taxes? Assigning the monetary authority a role in achieving debt sustainability makes it less effective in stabilizing inflation and output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62

• Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2021-4 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg, Tatevik Sekhposyan

  We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C2, C21, C5, C53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52

• Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds

  Staff Working Paper 2021-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Barbara Sadaba, Mark Kruger

  What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E5, E52, E58

• Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19

  Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai

  We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52