Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models.
Staff research, Publications
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July 20, 2011
Monetary Policy Report – July 2011
The Canadian economy is projected to expand by 2.8 per cent in 2011, 2.6 per cent in 2012, and 2.1 per cent in 2013, returning to capacity in the middle of 2012. Total CPI inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target by the middle of 2012. -
July 11, 2011
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Second-Quarter 2011
The survey results point to an overall net easing in business-lending conditions. The balance of opinion regarding both price and non-price lending conditions showed the greatest degree of consensus on easing since the survey began in 1999. -
July 11, 2011
Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2011
Businesses remain positive about the outlook for the next 12 months, despite more modest expectations for U.S. economic growth. Indicators of future sales and investment are moderately higher, and intentions to hire have become more widespread. -
The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically. -
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June 22, 2011
Financial System Review - June 2011
In this issue of the Financial System Review, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council judges that, although the Canadian financial system is currently on a sound footing, risks to its stability remain elevated and have edged higher since December 2010. -
External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies
In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability.