F - International Economics
-
-
Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates?
Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. -
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada
We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country. -
Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns
We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors. -
Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock
We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes. -
Rising US LNG Exports and Global Natural Gas Price Convergence
We assess how rising exports of US liquefied natural gas affect the convergence of natural gas prices worldwide. Our results may have implications for the development of future LNG export capacity in Canada. -
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes
How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes. -
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter
Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency. -
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations
We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes. -
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021?
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.