Housing

• Housing Affordability and Parental Income Support

  Staff Working Paper 2024-28 Jason Allen, Kyra Carmichael, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent

  In many countries, the cost of housing has greatly outpaced income growth, leading to a housing affordability crisis. Leveraging Canadian loan-level data and quasi-experimental variation in payment-to-income constraints, we document an increasing reliance of first-time homebuyers on financial help from their parents, through mortgage co-signing. We show that parental support can effectively relax borrowing constraints—potentially to riskier borrowers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D6, D64, E, E2, E21, E24, G, G1, G18, G5, G51

• Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth

  Staff Working Paper 2024-21 Giulio Fella, Martin B. Holm, Thomas Michael Pugh

  We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Housing, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D12, D14, E, E2, E21
• May 9, 2024

  Release of the Financial Stability Report

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario

  Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments
• February 6, 2024

  Monetary policy: It’s perfectly imperfect

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec

  Governor Tiff Macklem speaks about the effectiveness—and limitations—of monetary policy. He highlights how raising and lowering the policy interest rate ultimately keeps inflation low, stable and predictable, despite significant shocks to the economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Housing, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Productivity
• February 6, 2024

  Monetary policy: The right tool for the right job

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how monetary policy is working to bring inflation down—and how it has worked to return inflation to target over the last 25 years. He also talks about the limits of monetary policy, and why the right focus is on controlling inflation in the medium term.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Housing, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Productivity

• Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas

  Staff Working Paper 2023-62 Qi Li, Xu Zhang

  We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E52, R, R0, R00

• Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee

  We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15
• December 7, 2023

  Economic progress report: Immigration, housing and the outlook for inflation

  Remarks Toni Gravelle Windsor–Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce Windsor, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the latest interest rate decision along with how immigration helps Canada’s economy and how it impacts inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments
• December 7, 2023

  What population growth means for the economy and inflation

  Speech summary Toni Gravelle Windsor-Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce Windsor, Ontario

  Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady at 5%, Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses immigration, inflation and the role that newcomers play in helping our economy grow.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments

• Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-21 Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac, Jing Yang

  We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Housing JEL Code(s): A, C, C4, C45, C5, C53, D, D2, R, R2, R3