Search

Content Types

Research Topics

JEL Codes

Locations

Departments

Authors

Sources

Statuses

Published After

Published Before

257 Results

Short-Run and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Commodity Discoveries

Staff Working Paper 2025-24 Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Kirill Shakhnov, Laure Simon
Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, F, F3, F4, Q, Q3, Q33

Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang
Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks.

Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

Staff Working Paper 2025-20 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Thomas Winberry, Toni Whited
We develop a heterogeneous firm macro model with private information and quantify the aggregate relevance of asymmetric information. We find that a spike in private information account for 40% of the decline in aggregate investment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and made monetary stimulus significantly less effective.

Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West
We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update

Staff Analytical Note 2025-17 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos
We provide an update on the state of the labour market, which has moved into modest excess supply. We also explore why wage growth measures remain elevated and how US trade policy could affect different parts of the labour market. We update the range of benchmarks in our dashboard of indicators.

Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025

This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2025 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4

Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment

We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico.

The Distributional Origins of the Canada-US GDP and Labour Productivity Gaps

Staff Working Paper 2024-49 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Joel Rodrigue
We find the top 10% of the income distribution accounts for three-quarters of the gap in GDP per adult between Canada and the United States. The large gaps in income for high-income earners help distinguish between alternative explanations of this persistent gap in GDP per adult.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J6, J61, N, N1, N12, O, O4, O47, O5, O51

Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Rachit Lumb
The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C4, C5, C52, C8, E, E0, E01, E2, E21
Go To Page