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278 Results

Instant Payments, Fraud, and Optimal Consumer Protection

Staff working paper 2026-41 Yuteng Cheng, Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra
This paper studies how fraud prevention should be organized in instant payment systems. It compares centralized and decentralized governance, showing how access pricing, payment eligibility, prevention incentives, and liability allocation jointly determine fraud risk and the set of payments admitted to the system.

Beyond "Looking Through": Monetary Policy Responses and Communication Under Supply-Driven Inflation

Staff working paper 2026-39 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen, Jing Yang
Using a controlled macroeconomic experiment, we compare monetary policy rules that differ in how much they look through inflation: a Lean-Against policy with strong response to inflation and a Look-Through policy with less strong response. We combine each rule with communication protocols that vary the information the central bank releases about its policy response.

Auction Timing Under Limited Information: Evidence from Sovereign Bond Auctions

Staff analytical paper 2026-51 Jeffrey Gao, Adam Epp
This paper examines how auction timing may affect sovereign issuance outcomes through its interaction with market volatility. Using Canada as a case study, it shows that: (1) higher same-day bond market volatility is associated with larger auction tails, indicating weaker demand conditions; and (2) monetary policy announcements and certain macroeconomic data releases are systematically associated with higher same-day volatility.

The Production Network Amplification of Retaliatory Tariffs

We develop a framework to quantify how tariff changes on imported goods affect sectoral and aggregate consumption prices through direct and production-network channels. Using Canada's input-output matrix and administrative firm-good import data for the universe of Canadian firms, we estimate price elasticities for tariffs on U.S.-imported goods.

Automation and Inequality: How Robots Shift Income Between Workers and Owners

Staff working paper 2026-34 Gabriela Galassi, Gaelan MacKenzie
This paper examines the direct effects of industrial robot adoption on workers and owners within Canadian private corporations. Adoption increases firm scale and per-worker payroll but does not decrease the labor share of value added. Conventional accounting of labor income earned by owners masks the impact on non-owner workers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

Merchant Access to Cash: Going the Extra Kilometer?

Staff analytical paper 2026-41 Angelika Welte, Stephen Wild, Patrick Fogaing kouamo
In this study, we measure SMBs’ access to cash using the driving distance to financial institution (FI) branches. First, we measure the distance between SMBs and the nearest FI branch. Second, we use a sample of 651 SMBs from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey to examine SMBs’ banking choices.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments

Tracking Heterogeneous Spending Patterns with Credit Card Microdata

Staff analytical paper 2026-38 Jia Qi Xiao, Jackson Reid, Joey Daniels
We present a measure of account-level credit card spending constructed using credit bureau microdata, capturing monthly spending for approximately 80% of adults in Canada. Our measure offers higher frequency than other publicly available consumption metrics, and can be disaggregated by age, geographic location and credit history.

Climate stress test of the global supply chain network: the case of river floods

This study investigates how extreme flood events can indirectly impact the global supply chain through production disruptions. The findings emphasize that the size of inventories is crucial; a lean-inventory system leads to faster shock propagation, higher losses, and fewer recoveries compared to an abundant-inventory system.

Time Use and Consumption Expenditures

Staff working paper 2026-29 Daniela Hauser, Stefano Gnocchi, Laure Simon
This paper shows that consumption activities toward which households reallocate more time in recessions see larger expenditure declines, revealing a systematic link between time-use and expenditure cyclicality. A two-sector New Keynesian model shows this time-expenditure substitution explains roughly forty percent of consumption's response to monetary policy shocks.
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