The Intergenerational Correlation of Employment: Is There a Role for Work Culture? Staff working paper 2019-33 Gabriela Galassi, David Koll, Lukas Mayr We document a substantial positive correlation of employment status between mothers and their children in the United States, linking data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adults. After controlling for ability, education and wealth, a one-year increase in a mother’s employment is associated with six weeks more employment of her child on average. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies Staff discussion paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Online Job Seekers in Canada: What Can We Learn from Bing Job Queries? Staff analytical note 2019-18 André Binette, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Nicholas Curtis, Gabriela Galassi, Scott Counts, Justin Cranshaw Labour markets in Canada and around the world are evolving rapidly with the digital economy. Traditional data are adapting gradually but are not yet able to provide timely information on this evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C8, C80, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019 Staff analytical note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment Staff analytical note 2019-10 Dany Brouillette, Julien Champagne, Carol Khoury, Natalia Kyui, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union Staff working paper 2019-15 Daniela Hauser, Martin Seneca The optimal currency literature has stressed the importance of labor mobility as a precondition for the success of monetary unions. But only a few studies formally link labor mobility to macroeconomic adjustment and policy. In this paper, we study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions that share trade links and a common monetary framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States Staff working paper 2019-12 David Albouy, Alex Chernoff, Chandler Lutz, Casey Warman We examine local labor markets in the United States and Canada from 1990 to 2011 using comparable household and business data. Wage levels and inequality rise with city population in both countries, albeit less in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): J, J2, J21, J3, J31, J6, J61, N, N3, N32, R, R1, R12 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-6 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E26, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Inequality in Parental Transfers and Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid Staff working paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal need-based financial aid when parental transfers—unobserved by policymakers—vary across and within families of similar means. Using data on U.S. college students, I document substantial inequality in parental transfers, especially among wealthier families. I then analyze how this affects aid design aimed at reducing inefficiencies from borrowing constraints and the aid itself. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-4 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu The literature highlights that labour market churn, including job-to-job transitions, is a key element of wage growth. Using microdata from the Labour Force Survey, we compute measures of labour market churn and compare these with pre-crisis averages to assess implications for wage growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J6, J63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply