Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey Staff analytical note 2023-1 Annick Demers, Tamara Gomes, Stephane Gignac The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
December 12, 2022 Putting the resolute in resolutions: Looking ahead to lower inflation Remarks Tiff Macklem Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the important lessons from 2022 and explains what the Bank is doing to restore price stability for Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
December 12, 2022 Reflections on 2022 Speech summary Tiff Macklem Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the important lessons from events in 2022 and what the Bank is doing to restore price stability for Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 22, 2022 Tracking the financial vulnerabilities of households and the housing market The Bank of Canada is publishing a new set of indicators of financial vulnerabilities. This will allow households, the private sector, financial authorities and governments to better understand and monitor the evolution of two key vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness and high house prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21
November 22, 2022 Monitoring the health of Canada’s financial system Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Young Canadians in Finance Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses risks and vulnerabilities in our financial system and what the Bank of Canada is doing to support financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
November 22, 2022 Financial stability in times of uncertainty Remarks Carolyn Rogers Young Canadians in Finance Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses the Bank’s work to monitor risks and vulnerabilities in Canada’s financial system and support greater financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
Variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments: Examining trigger rates Staff analytical note 2022-19 Stephen Murchison, Maria teNyenhuis We estimate the share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that reached the so-called trigger rate—the interest rate at which mortgage payments no longer cover the principal. Amid rising interest rates, this share was close to 50% at the end of October 2022 and could potentially reach 65% in 2023. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market Staff analytical note 2022-18 Alexander Lam Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, J, J2, J20, J6, J63, J64 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
November 10, 2022 Getting back to stable prices and a balanced jobs market Speech summary Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 10, 2022 Restoring labour market balance and price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework