Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations Staff working paper 2023-63 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C9, C93, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E59, E7 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas Staff working paper 2023-62 Qi Li, Xu Zhang We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E52, R, R0, R00 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Finding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth Staff analytical note 2023-18 Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong Using our new quantitative tool, we show how the risks to the inflation and growth outlooks have evolved over the course of 2023. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services Staff discussion paper 2023-27 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation Staff discussion paper 2023-24 Daniel Hyun, Jacky Lee This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q0, Q02, Q1, Q11, Q17, Q18 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models Staff discussion paper 2023-23 Donald Coletti The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53, C54, C55 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission