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340 Results

June 17, 2008

A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector

In this article, the authors build on the framework used in the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review to assess the evolution of household indebtedness and financial vulnerabilities in response to changing economic conditions. To achieve this, they first compare two microdata sets generated by Ipsos Reid's Canadian Financial Monitor and Statistics Canada's Survey of Financial Security. They find that the surveys are broadly comparable, despite methodological differences. This enables them to use the combined information content for the identification of the threshold value of the debt-service ratio (DSR). The article then presents an innovative framework that uses household-level microdata to simulate changes in the distribution of the DSR under various stress scenarios. The authors show how this framework can be used by analyzing the effects of two different scenarios on the distribution of the debt-service ratio and the impact on vulnerable households. This tool will enable researchers to refine their analyses of current risks to the financial health of Canadian households. The article concludes with comments on future directions for refining the Bank's analyses of household sector risk.

The Effects of a Disruption in CDSX Settlement on Activity in the LVTS: A Simulation Study

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-7 Lana Embree, Kirby Millar
The Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) for settling large payments, and CDSX for settling debt and equity trades, are two of the main settlement systems in Canada. They are closely linked; for example, at the end of the day the final CDSX payment obligations must settle on the Bank of Canada's books, with payments made […]

Sterilized Intervention in Emerging-Market Economies: Trends, Costs, and Risks

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-4 Robert Lavigne
The author examines recent trends in sterilized intervention among emerging-market economies, to determine the size and extent of this policy in relation to earlier periods of heavy reserve accumulation. He then analyzes whether the domestic costs and risks of substantial and prolonged sterilization are beginning to manifest themselves.
March 16, 2008

Developing a Framework to Assess Financial Stability: Conference Highlights and Lessons

Central banks are still defining their approach to financial stability and are at an early stage in the development of useful models. The Bank of Canada's 2007 economic conference was organized to stimulate progress in the development of financial-stability frameworks. Among the highlights reported here are the discussions centred around three proposed frameworks: a contingent-claims-analysis framework, a semi-structural framework, and structural financial-stability models. Participants also reported on their experiences with stress-testing under the International Monetary Fund's Financial Sector Assessment Program and discussed the implications for financial stability of linkages among payment, clearing, and settlement systems.

Unsecured Debt, Consumer Bankruptcy, and Small Business

Staff Working Paper 2008-5 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima
In this paper we develop a quantitative model of entrepreneurial activity (risk-taking) and consumer bankruptcy choices and use the model to study the effects of bankruptcy regulations on entrepreneurial activity, bankruptcy rate and welfare.
October 12, 2007

Bank of Canada Workshop on Derivatives Markets in Canada and Beyond

At this 2006 workshop hosted by the Bank of Canada, an international group of market participants, regulators, and policy-makers gathered to assess recent developments in the derivatives market. Among the topics discussed were the recent prodigious growth in risk-transfer instruments, including credit derivatives and inflation-linked derivatives, as well as the accompanying challenges and benefits. Overall, the development of derivatives markets was seen as providing broad economic benefits, including more complete financial markets, improved market liquidity, and increased capacity of the financial system to effectively price and bear risk. Yet concern was also voiced that market participants do not fully understand the risks that arise in trading credit derivatives.

Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: The State of the Debate

Staff Discussion Paper 2007-9 Michael R. King, Philipp Maier
The authors review the state of the debate on hedge funds and the potential threat that hedge funds pose to financial stability. The collapse of a hedge fund or a group of hedge funds might pose a systemic risk directly by damaging systematically important financial institutions, or indirectly by increasing market volatility and generating a […]

Managing Adverse Dependence for Portfolios of Collateral in Financial Infrastructures

Staff Working Paper 2007-25 Alejandro García, Ramazan Gençay
We propose a framework that allows a portfolio manager to quantify the probability of simultaneous losses in multiple assets of a collateral portfolio. Using this framework, we propose a methodology to conduct stress tests on the market value of the portfolio of collateral when undesirable extreme dependence occurs.
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