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92 Results

Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy
In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

Measuring Vulnerabilities in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Using Industry- and Firm-Level Data

Staff Analytical Note 2018-17 Timothy Grieder, Michal Lipsitz
Aggregate non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has been growing rapidly in recent years and is at an all-time high. This growth began in 2011 and accelerated as the oil price shock affected the Canadian economy.

How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework

Staff Analytical Note 2018-11 Alexander Ueberfeldt, Thibaut Duprey
Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks.

Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities

Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey
When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.

Adverse Selection with Heterogeneously Informed Agents

Staff Working Paper 2018-7 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini
A model of over-the-counter markets is proposed. Some asset buyers are informed in that they can identify high quality assets. Heterogeneous sellers with private information choose what type of buyers they want to trade with.

Who Pays? CCP Resource Provision in the Post-Pittsburgh World

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-17 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Mark Manning
At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 countries announced their commitment to clear all standardized over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs). Since then, CCPs have become increasingly important and there has been an extensive program of regulatory enhancements to both them and OTC derivatives markets.

Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation

Staff Analytical Note 2017-25 Timothy Grieder, Dylan Hogg, Thibaut Duprey
Over the past several years, the Bank for International Settlements has noted that Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap has widened and is above thresholds indicating future banking stress.

A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities

Staff Analytical Note 2017-24 Thibaut Duprey, Tom Roberts
This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.

Optimal Interbank Regulation

Staff Working Paper 2017-48 Thomas J. Carter
Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies.
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