The Impact of Government Debt Supply on Bond Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Market Staff Working Paper 2018-35 Jeffrey Gao, Jianjian Jin, Jacob Thompson This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G3, G32
Incentive Compatibility on the Blockchain Staff Working Paper 2018-34 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl A blockchain is a digital ledger that keeps track of a record of ownership without the need for a designated party to update and enforce changes to the record. The updating of the ledger is done directly by the users of the blockchain and is traditionally governed by a proof-of-work (PoW) protocol. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43
Following the Money: Evidence for the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing Staff Working Paper 2018-33 Itay Goldstein, Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang Recent research suggests that quantitative easing (QE) may affect a broad range of asset prices through a portfolio balance channel. Using novel security-level holding data of individual US mutual funds, we establish evidence that portfolio rebalancing occurred both within and across funds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G23
The Characteristics of Uninsured Mortgages and their Securitization Potential Staff Analytical Note 2018-24 Adi Mordel, Maria teNyenhuis Following changes to housing finance policies that target insured mortgages, uninsured mortgage credit has been growing. This robust growth creates a larger pool of mortgages that may be suitable for private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium Staff Discussion Paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65, G, G1, G12
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database Revisited: What’s New in 2018? Staff Working Paper 2018-30 David Beers, Jamshid Mavalwalla Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada’s Credit Rating Assessment Group (CRAG) has developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults posted on the Bank of Canada’s website that now is updated in partnership with the Bank of England. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds? Staff Analytical Note 2018-21 Rohan Arora Mutual funds employ a host of tools to manage redemption run risk. However, our results suggest that Canadian corporate bond funds may be vulnerable to redemption runs, especially when they are less liquid and when market volatility is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
A Primer on the Canadian Bankers’ Acceptance Market Staff Discussion Paper 2018-6 Kaetlynd McRae, Danny Auger This paper discusses how the bankers’ acceptance (BA) market in Canada is organized and its essential link to the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR). Globally, BAs are a niche product used only in a limited number of jurisdictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23
Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12
June 7, 2018 The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey Financial System Review - June 2018 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Ian Christensen, Scott Kinnear, Maxime Leboeuf This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G28, G3, G32