The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff Working Paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58
What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19? Staff Analytical Note 2020-20 Kim Huynh, Helen Lao, Patrick Sabourin, Angelika Welte The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E52
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58
Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations? Staff Working Paper 2020-35 Narayan Bulusu Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21
Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis Staff Working Paper 2020-34 Tobias Blattner, Jonathan Swarbrick We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, International financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F36
Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C6, C65, C8, C81, E, E4, E42, E5, E51
Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions Staff Discussion Paper 2020-7 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Lawrence L. Schembri We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB Staff Working Paper 2020-31 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc, Joel Wagner The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt Staff Working Paper 2020-29 Jason Allen, Jakub Kastl, Milena Wittwer The main objectives of debt management are to raise stable and low-cost funding to meet the government’s financial needs and to maintain a well-functioning market for government securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D4, D44, E, E5, E58, G, G1, G12