February 24, 2015 Lessons New and Old: Reinventing Central Banking Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Western University President's Lecture London, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the need to integrate financial stability concerns with inflation control in conducting monetary policy after the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework
November 13, 2014 Recent Developments in Experimental Macroeconomics Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Robert Amano, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen This article describes experimental economics, in general, and new developments in experimental macroeconomics, in particular. The approach has a clear niche in providing evidence on economic phenomena that cannot be observed directly or that are difficult to measure. Experimental work conducted by Bank of Canada economists has shed light on a number of issues important to monetary policy, such as the relative efficacy between price-level and inflation targeting, and the nature of inflation expectations formation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
November 13, 2014 Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison When constrained by the zero lower bound, some central banks have communicated a threshold that must be met before short-term interest rates would be permitted to rise. Simulation results for Canada show that forward guidance that is conditional on achieving a price-level threshold can theoretically raise demand and inflation expectations by significantly more than unemployment thresholds. This superior performance is attributable to the fact that the price-level threshold depends on past inflation outcomes. In practice, however, history-dependent thresholds such as this might be more challenging for central banks to communicate. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective Staff Discussion Paper 2014-6 Stephen S. Poloz This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E61
International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada Staff Working Paper 2014-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Abeer Reza, Kristina Hess The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F42, F44
Central Bank Communications Before, During and After the Crisis: From Open-Market Operations to Open-Mouth Policy Staff Working Paper 2013-41 Ianthi Vayid The days when secrecy and opacity were the bywords of central banking are gone. The advent of inflation targeting in the early 1990s acted as the catalyst for enhanced transparency and communications in the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
November 14, 2013 Monetary Policy Decision Making at the Bank of Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 John Murray The process that the Bank of Canada follows to make its monetary policy decisions has evolved over time. This process is very information-intensive and collaborative, drawing on the expertise, judgment and analysis of many people. This article describes monetary policy decision making at the Bank, and discusses some common misconceptions about monetary policy and the process. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada Staff Working Paper 2013-35 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin In this paper, the authors propose a measure of underlying inflation for Canada obtained from estimating a monthly factor model on individual components of the CPI. This measure, labelled the common component of CPI, has intuitive appeal and a number of interesting features. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58
Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions Staff Working Paper 2013-20 Nathan Porter, TengTeng Xu Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
May 16, 2013 Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evolving Practices, Their Effects and Potential Costs Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 Lena Suchanek, Eric Santor Following the recent financial crisis, major central banks have introduced several types of unconventional monetary policy measures, including liquidity and credit facilities, asset purchases and forward guidance. To date, these measures appear to have been successful. They restored market functioning, facilitated the transmission of monetary policy and supported economic activity. They have potential costs, however, including challenges related to the greatly expanded balance sheets of central banks and the eventual exit from these measures, as well as the vulnerabilities that can arise from prolonged monetary accommodation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65