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We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.

We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market.

Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households.

We investigate how the increase in interest rates since early 2022 is affecting mortgage payments. By November 2023, less than half of mortgage holders had faced higher payments. Many borrowers will see a sizable increase in payments at renewal, although income growth could help mitigate the impact.

Using our new quantitative tool, we show how the risks to the inflation and growth outlooks have evolved over the course of 2023.

While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face.

Central banks’ actions to stabilize financial markets and implement monetary policy during crises may come with costs and side effects. We provide a literature review of these costs and discuss measures that may mitigate the negative impacts of crisis actions.

Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.