Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan Staff working paper 2024-7 Brantly Callaway, Tong Li, Joel Rodrigue, Yuya Sasaki, Yong Tan We study the degree to which China’s 11th Five-Year Plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D2, D24, Q, Q5, Q53 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Digitalization and productivity
Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications Staff working paper 2025-20 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Thomas Winberry, Toni Whited We develop a heterogeneous firm macro model with private information and quantify the aggregate relevance of asymmetric information. We find that a spike in private information account for 40% of the decline in aggregate investment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and made monetary stimulus significantly less effective. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E52, G, G3, G30 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Public vs. Private Payment Platforms: Market Impacts and Optimal Policy Staff working paper 2026-10 Youming Liu, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Edona Reshidi We study the competition between a welfare-maximizing public payment platform (e.g., CBDC or fast payment system) and a profit-maximizing private platform in a two-sided market, deriving optimal public pricing and showing how network effects, fragmentation, and policy mandates like zero fees or cost recovery shape welfare, usage, and fee incidence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2021-4 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg, Tatevik Sekhposyan We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C2, C21, C5, C53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries* Staff working paper 2026-31 Guillermo Calvo, Emilio Colombi, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E31, E4, E44, F, F3, F32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Financial Shocks and the Output Growth Distribution Staff working paper 2025-25 Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper studies how financial shocks shape the distribution of output growth by introducing a quantile-augmented vector autoregression (QAVAR), which integrates quantile regressions into a structural VAR framework. The QAVAR preserves standard shock identification while delivering flexible, nonparametric forecasts of conditional moments and tail risk measures for gross domestic product. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Central Bank Liquidity Facilities and Market Making Staff working paper 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We create a theoretical model of central bank asset purchases. The model helps explain how, in a crisis, these purchases ease pressures on investment dealers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
December 31, 2013 Summary of Government of Canada - Outstanding as at 31 December 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Securities and loans
Ten Isn’t Large! Group Size and Coordination in a Large-Scale Experiment Staff working paper 2020-30 Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker, Isabelle Salle Economic activities typically involve coordination among a large number of agents. These agents have to anticipate what other agents think before making their own decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, D9, D90, G, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology, Assumptions and Sources Technical report No. 117 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk