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353 Results

Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System

Staff working paper 2023-1 Nellie Zhang
This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available.

Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service

Staff working paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann
We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security.

Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter

We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes.

Credit Card Minimum Payment Restrictions

Staff working paper 2024-26 Jason Allen, Michael Boutros, Benedict Guttman-Kenney
We study a government policy that restricts repayment choices with the aim of reducing credit card debt and estimate its effects by applying a difference-in-differences methodology to comprehensive credit-reporting data about Canadian consumers. We find the policy has trade-offs: reducing revolving debt comes at a cost of reducing credit access, and potentially increasing delinquency.

Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models

Staff working paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu
We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing.

On the Evolution of the United Kingdom Price Distributions

We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK).
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