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395 Results

Managing Risk Taking with Interest Rate Policy and Macroprudential Regulations

Staff working paper 2016-47 Simona Cociuba, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt
We develop a model in which a financial intermediary’s investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance and characterize the policy tools that implement efficient risk taking.

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles

Staff working paper 2023-22 Michael Irwin
This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations.

Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?

Staff working paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar
How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions?

Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions

Staff working paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur
Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.

Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning

Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo.

Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Staff working paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee
We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles.

On the Fragility of DeFi Lending

Staff working paper 2023-14 Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, Shengxing Zhang
We develop a dynamic model to capture key features of decentralized finance lending. We identify a price-liquidity feedback: the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about lending activities in future periods, with higher future price expectations leading to more lending and higher prices in that period.

Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs

Staff working paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress
This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope).

Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies?

Staff working paper 2024-35 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet
This paper explores the implications of introducing digital public and private monies (e.g. tokenized central bank digital currency [CBDC] or tokenized deposits) for stablecoins and illicit crypto transactions.

The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design

Staff working paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen
Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys.
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