Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2024-9 Bruno Feunou, Zabi Tarshi We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12
The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation Staff Working Paper 1994-6 Robert Amano, Tony S. Wirjanto We examine the ability of the simple linear-quadratic model under rational expectations to explain dynamic behaviour of aggregate Canadian imports. In contrast to authors of previous studies who examine dynamic behaviour using the LQ model, we estimate the structural parameters using the Euler equation in a limited information framework that does not require an explicit solution for the model's control variables in terms of the exogenous forcing variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance: A Review Staff Working Paper 2000-20 Younes Bensalah Extreme value theory (EVT) has been applied in fields such as hydrology and insurance. It is a tool used to consider probabilities associated with extreme and thus rare events. EVT is useful in modelling the impact of crashes or situations of extreme stress on investor portfolios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C0, C4, C5, G, G1
February 25, 2020 Contingency planning for a central bank digital currency This background note explains the Bank’s official position on CBDC. It outlines the public policy, design, technology and risk management issues the Bank is considering as it builds its capacity to issue a CBDC in case it is needed in the future. Content Type(s): Background materials Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech
Unanticipated Defaults and Losses in Canada's Large-Value Payments System, Revisited Staff Discussion Paper 2007-5 Devin Ball, Walter Engert Recent work at the Bank of Canada studied the impact of default in Canada’s large-value payments system, and concluded that participants could readily manage their potential losses (McVanel 2005). In an extension of that work, the authors use a much larger set of daily payments data – with three times as many observations – to […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, G, G2, G21
Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2007-32 Michel Juillard, Florian Pelgrin Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, E, E5, E6
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave? Staff Working Paper 2014-52 Michael Ehrmann Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 2005-34 Christopher Ragan The author provides a non-technical explanation of the role played by the exchange rate in Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E52, F, F4, F41
COVID-19 and Financial Stability: Practice Ahead of Theory Staff Discussion Paper 2022-18 Jing Yang, Hélène Desgagnés, Grzegorz Halaj, Yaz Terajima The COVID-19 pandemic uncovered policy challenges related to the economic measures that were taken to support the economy. Two years later, we attempt to identify the broader impact of these measures and research that needs to follow. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G2, G21, H, H3, H8, H84
How Rigid Are Nominal-Wage Rates? Staff Working Paper 2001-8 Allan Crawford This study examines the effect of nominal-wage rigidities on wage growth in Canada using a hazard model and micro data for union contracts. The hazard model is specified in a way that allows considerable flexibility in the shape of the estimated notional wage-change distribution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52, E6, E61