Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff working paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program Staff analytical note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows Staff working paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems Staff working paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
June 22, 2011 Emerging from the Shadows: Market-Based Financing in Canada Financial System Review - June 2011 James Chapman, Lawrence L. Schembri, Stéphane Lavoie Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation Staff working paper 2022-33 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen, Jing Yang How should central banks design monetary policy in stable times and during recessions? We run a horse race between five monetary policy frameworks in an experimental laboratory to assess how well the different approaches can manage the public’s expectations and stabilize the economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
What Drives Bitcoin Fees? Using Segwit to Assess Bitcoin's Long-Run Sustainability Staff working paper 2022-2 Colin Brown, Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl We explore what drives transaction fees in the Bitcoin system and consider whether Bitcoin can remain tamper proof in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
November 15, 2017 Embracing Uncertainty in the Conduct of Monetary Policy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Money Marketeers of New York University New York, New York Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains how uncertainty is factored into monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
August 16, 2012 Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2012 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods Staff discussion paper 2021-5 Jonathan Swarbrick Solving macroeconomic models is difficult. One challenge is the occasionally binding constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This paper reviews various ways to solve models that include this feature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission