January 27, 2012 An Analysis of Bank Closure Policy under Alternative Regulatory Structures Financial System Review - December 2005 Greg Caldwell Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Financial Crisis Resolution Staff Working Paper 2012-42 Josef Schroth This paper studies a dynamic version of the Holmstrom-Tirole model of intermediated finance. I show that competitive equilibria are not constrained efficient when the economy experiences a financial crisis. A pecuniary externality entails that banks’ desire to accumulate capital over time aggravates the scarcity of informed capital during the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E6, E60, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G18
The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets Staff Working Paper 2004-47 Gregory Bauer, Clara Vega Existing studies using low-frequency data show that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G1, G12, G14, G15
Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation Staff Working Paper 2007-8 Frédérick Demers, Calista Cheung This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff Working Paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71
Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock? Staff Working Paper 2003-43 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei Recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff Analytical Note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stéphanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51