Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation Staff Working Paper 2014-23 Toni Ahnert I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G28
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32
Unemployment Fluctuations in a Small Open-Economy Model with Segmented Labour Markets: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2013-40 Yahong Zhang The recent financial crisis and subsequent recession have spurred great interest in the sources of unemployment fluctuations. Previous studies predominantly assume a single economy-wide labour market, and therefore abstract from differences across sectorspecific labour markets in the economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, J, J6
Optimal Margining and Margin Relief in Centrally Cleared Derivatives Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-29 Radoslav Raykov A major policy challenge posed by derivatives clearinghouses is that their collateral requirements can rise sharply in times of stress, reducing market liquidity and further exacerbating downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21
Job Ladder and Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32
March 9, 2010 Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Gino Cateau, Stephen Murchison This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework
Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results Staff Working Paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40
Optimal Monetary Policy and Price Stability Over the Long-Run Staff Working Paper 2007-26 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper examines the role of monetary policy in an environment with aggregate risk and incomplete markets. In a two-period overlapping-generations model with aggregate uncertainty and nominal bonds, optimal monetary policy attains the ex-ante Pareto optimal allocation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5
Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives in a Non-Parametric Two-Factor Term-Structure Model Staff Working Paper 1999-19 John Knight, Fuchun Li, Mingwei Yuan Diffusion functions in term-structure models are measures of uncertainty about future price movements and are directly related to the risk associated with holding financial securities. Correct specification of diffusion functions is crucial in pricing options and other derivative securities. In contrast to the standard parametric two-factor models, we propose a non-parametric two-factor term-structure model that […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C2, C22, G, G1, G13
Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54