Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending Standards Staff working paper 2019-47 Toni Ahnert, Martin Kuncl We examine loan insurance—credit risk transfer upon origination—in a model in which lenders can screen, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans. Some lenders with low screening ability insure, benefiting from higher market liquidity of insured loans while forgoing the option to exploit future information about loan quality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Settlement Balances Deconstructed Staff discussion paper 2022-13 Parnell Chu, Grahame Johnson, Scott Kinnear, Karen McGuinness, Matthew McNeely Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, public interest in the Bank’s balance sheet and, more specifically, the size of settlement balances, has grown. This paper deconstructs the concept of settlement balances and provides some context on their history, current state and possible future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E59, E6, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Distributing Sovereign Debt in a Rising Debt Environment: Outcomes from Canada’s 2024 Debt Distribution Framework Review Staff analytical paper 2026-18 William Bradley, Jeffrey Gao This paper documents Canada’s recent review of its sovereign debt distribution framework (DDF). Informed by a context of record-high debt issuance since the previous DDF review, along with comparisons with sovereign peers and insights from market participants, the review identified an important need to broaden Canada’s dealer base internationally to support a larger and more diverse set of investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G28, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Stablecoins and Their Risks to Financial Stability Staff discussion paper 2022-20 Cameron MacDonald, Laura Zhao What risks could stablecoins pose to the financial system? We argue that the stabilization mechanisms of stablecoins give rise to the risk of confidence runs, which can propagate to broader cryptoasset markets and the traditional financial sector. We also argue that stablecoins can contribute to financial stability risks by facilitating the buildup of leverage and liquidity mismatch in decentralized finance. Such risks cannot be addressed by ensuring the price stability of stablecoins alone. Finally, we explore the potential implications of stablecoins for the current system of bank-intermediated credit and for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E58, G, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff working paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
December 15, 1999 The Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Standard of Living Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1999–2000 Robert Lafrance, Lawrence L. Schembri This article examines the recent proposition that the decline in Canada's standard of living relative to that of the United States is causally related to the decline in our exchange rate. The authors explore the main channels through which the exchange rate and the standard of living could be related—productivity and the terms of trade—focusing mainly on productivity. They conclude that the decline in world commodity prices and weak demand for domestic output were affecting both Canada's standard of living and the exchange rate and that the flexible exchange rate regime itself did not play an independent role. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Creations and Redemptions in Fixed-Income Exchange-Traded Funds: A Shift from Bonds to Cash Staff analytical note 2019-34 Rohan Arora, Sébastien Betermier, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Adriano Palumbo, Ryan Shotlander The creation and redemption activity of fixed-income exchange-traded funds listed in the United States has shifted. Funds of established issuers have traditionally exchanged their shares for baskets of bonds. In contrast, young funds managed by new issuers tend to create and redeem their shares almost exclusively in cash. Cash transactions imply that new funds are taking on exposure to liquidity risk. This has implications for financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment Staff working paper 2023-13 Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Isabelle Salle This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement a chaotic overlapping-generation model in the lab and find that group coordination is always on the steady state or on the two-cycle and that behavior is non-monotonic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C68, C9, C91, C92, E, E1, E13, E7, E70, G, G1, G12, G4, G41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates? Staff working paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries* Staff working paper 2026-31 Guillermo Calvo, Emilio Colombi, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E31, E4, E44, F, F3, F32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting