Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
On-the-run Premia, Settlement Fails, and Central Bank Access Staff Working Paper 2025-19 Fabienne Schneider The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G19, G2, G23
November 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Cover page Bus Transportation Tokens and Tickets The pieces illustrated on the cover range in size from 12 mm to 38 mm in diameter or width. They form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
August 15, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 This special issue discusses tools used at Bank of Canada to conduct current analysis - the collection and analysis of a broad spectrum of information to form a view of current economic activity. This analysis is a key input into the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs Staff Working Paper 2014-12 Jasmina Arifovic, Janet Hua Jiang A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D80, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20
Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, G, G1
To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse Staff Working Paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2019? Staff Working Paper 2019-39 David Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-49 David Bolder, Shudan Liu The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach Staff Working Paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32